In order to plan for the future, you have to envision the future. That’s a core strength of Cairn ERA. All of our forecasts are fundamentally Bottom-Up, meaning that they are formulated based on the organic growth and drivers of the particular market and technology. Other consulting firms will simply add a pre-existing growth curve to a market base and call it a day. Cairn ERA carefully builds its forecasts through attention to buyers’ motivations, manufacturing capabilities of existing producers and expected technology improvements.
Once an initial forecast is built, a Top-Down stress test is performed. This usually involves selecting a historical precedent and applying that growth curve to the base market numbers. This stress test is compared to the Bottom-Up forecast in order to see differences and challenge assumptions. If a particular part of the forecast differs dramatically from the stress test, then underlying assumptions can be re-assessed.
All Cairn ERA forecasts are global in nature, with results broken down by six global regions and major countries within each of those regions.